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Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century

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  • Barsky, Robert B.
  • Long, J. Bradford De

Abstract

The bull and bear markets of this century have suggested that large stock market swings reflect irrational “fads and fashions.” We argue instead that investors perceived shifts in the long-run rate of future growth and that stock prices are sufficiently sensitive to expectations about the future that these perceived shifts plausibly generated the swings of the twentieth century. We document that analysts often viewed as “smart money” assessed fundamentals, based on their perceptions of future economic growth, in a way that tracked decade-to-decade swings closely.

Suggested Citation

  • Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 265-281, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:50:y:1990:i:02:p:265-281_03
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Ehsan & Koppl, Roger & Rosser, J. Jr. & White, Mark V., 1997. "Complex bubble persistence in closed-end country funds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, January.
    2. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer, 1990. "The Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 3523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Antonio Mele, 2004. "General Properties of Rational Stock-Market Fluctuations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 223, Econometric Society.
    4. Richard Ablin, 1994. "Exchange Rate Systems, Incomes Policy and Stabilization Some Short and Long-Run Considerations," Bank of Israel Working Papers 1994.01, Bank of Israel.
    5. J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1992. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1876-1990," NBER Working Papers 4054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002. "Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
    7. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    8. Candelon, B. & Metiu, N., 2009. "Testing for exceptional bulls and bears: a non-parametric perspective," Research Memorandum 017, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    9. J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1995. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1870-1990," Economic History 9509002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    11. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311.
    12. Michele Bagella & Rocco Ciciretti, 2009. "Financial markets and the post-crisis scenario," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(3), pages 215-225, September.
    13. Kaliva, Kasimir & Koskinen, Lasse, 2008. "Stock market bubbles, inflation and investment risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 592-603, June.
    14. Farzan Soleymani & Eric Paquet, 2021. "Deep Graph Convolutional Reinforcement Learning for Financial Portfolio Management -- DeepPocket," Papers 2105.08664, arXiv.org.
    15. Filip Abraham & Hilde Leliaert, 1991. "Foreign dependence of individual stock prices: The role of aggregate product market developments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, February.
    16. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "The Stock Market Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _120, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    17. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-1130, December.
    18. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    19. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1991. "The stock market bubble of 1929: evidence from clsoed-end mutual funds," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 675-700, September.

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