The Antebellum Money Market and the Economic Impact of the Bank War: A Reply

In their comment Curran and Johnston raise two general points. They suggest (1) that my main conclusions are not substantiated by statistical tests of stability, and (2) that the specifications used in my analysis are inappropriate.Let me summarize my reply. With regard to Curran and Johnston's statistical tests for the structural stability of my money model, there are three major points. First, in using the Chow test for structural stability the authors do not use the relevant statistical information to carry out the test, so the results they derive are not the appropriate test of the economic hypotheses. I on the other hand report and interpret the results of the relevant Chow test that uses the appropriate statistical information and lends support to my hypothesis that the Bank War altered the public's liquidity preference. Second, Curran and Johnston do not correctly analyze and interpret their own results. Actually, the implications of their own evidence support my original hypothesis that the Bank War caused a shift in the liquidity preference of the public. Third, although the Chow test is a statistical test for stability, in this case it is not a direct test of the economic question at hand; that is, it is a weak test. I therefore provide a more direct statistical F test that provides evidence to support my hypothesis that the Bank War caused the Panic of 1837 and that refutes the Temin hypothesis that the Bank War left monetary behavior unaffected.1 Furthermore, the empirical evidence demonstrates that banks were quite interest sensitive during the years prior to the Bank War and that the Bank War altered commercial bank behavior before 1837 in a manner that, coupled with the shift in the public's liquidity preference, culminated in the Panic of 1837.