Population and Economic Change: The Emergence of the Rice Industry in Guyana, 1895–1915

Considered analytically population growth may either have positive or negative influences on economic growth. Population expansion may, by facilitating a widening of markets, allow for economies of scale to be realized and permit the introduction of new industries, or by relieving labor scarcities, facilitate economic expansion. Possible negative implications for economic growth may result however, as Malthus argued, through the mechanism of diminishing returns or by changing the age structure of the population so as to increase the proportion of dependents relative to economically active producers and thus reduce the volume of goods and services available to each individual. The point is that economic analysis prima facia is agnostic with respect to the net effect of population change on economic change. One or all of the above relationships may be operative in any individual country experience and without careful empirical observations, it is impossible to identify accurately whether the negative or positive effects are dominant. Clearly what is needed before general statements about the relationship between population and economic change can be supported is a series of country studies whose purpose will be not only to determine the frequency with which the optimistic or pessimistic influences predominate, but in addition to identify the intervening economic and social institutions which account for the predominance of one or the other effect.