IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jbcoan/v11y2020i3p341-356_1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Manski, Charles F.

Abstract

This paper presents my thinking and concerns about formation of COVID-19 policy. Policy formation must cope with substantial uncertainties about the nature of the disease, the dynamics of transmission, and behavioral responses. Data uncertainties limit our knowledge of the past trajectory and current state of the pandemic. Data and modeling uncertainties limit our ability to predict the impacts of alternative policies. I explain why current epidemiological and macroeconomic modeling cannot deliver realistically optimal policy. I describe my recent work quantifying basic data uncertainties that make policy analysis difficult. I discuss approaches for policy choice under uncertainty and suggest adaptive policy diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Manski, Charles F., 2020. "Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 341-356, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jbcoan:v:11:y:2020:i:3:p:341-356_1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2194588820000202/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loic BERGER & Nicolas BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI & Itzhak GILBOA & Lars Peter HANSEN & Christopher JARVIS & Massimo MARINACCI & Richard D. Smith, 2020. "Rational policymaking during a pandemic," Working Papers 2020-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
    2. Zhaohui Su, 2021. "Rigorous Policy-Making Amid COVID-19 and Beyond: Literature Review and Critical Insights," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Coroneo, Laura & Iacone, Fabrizio & Paccagnini, Alessia & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2023. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 606-622.
    4. Rebecca Forman & Elias Mossialos, 2021. "The EU Response to COVID‐19: From Reactive Policies to Strategic Decision‐Making," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(S1), pages 56-68, September.
    5. Muller, Seán M., 2021. "The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Dimitris Zavras, 2021. "Feeling Uncertainty during the Lockdown That Commenced in March 2020 in Greece," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-10, May.
    7. Timothy Besley & Nicholas Stern, 2020. "The Economics of Lockdown," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 493-513, September.
    8. Jean Czerlinski Whitmore Ortega, 2022. "Learning with insufficient data: a multi-armed bandit perspective on covid-19 interventions," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 21(2), pages 183-193, November.
    9. Dimitris Zavras, 2021. "Studying Satisfaction with the Restriction Measures Implemented in Greece during the First COVID-19 Pandemic Wave," World, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-12, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jbcoan:v:11:y:2020:i:3:p:341-356_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/bca .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.