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Potential Economic Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Africa: Evidence from Guinea-Bissau

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  • Cateia, Júlio Vicente
  • Bittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo
  • Carvalho, Terciane Sabadini
  • Savard, Luc

Abstract

This paper examines the potential effects of agricultural investment on economic outcomes in Guinea-Bissau (2014–2030). Through a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we found that improved agricultural performance will positively impact economic growth, sector output, and job opportunities for rural and urban workers. The decline in food prices will propagate indirect impacts on urban household welfare, while rural households will benefit from direct and indirect effects through the decline in the consumer price index. Poverty alleviation suggests agriculture’s crucial role in supporting ongoing industrialization and food security in Africa with attenuated income inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Cateia, Júlio Vicente & Bittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo & Carvalho, Terciane Sabadini & Savard, Luc, 2023. "Potential Economic Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Africa: Evidence from Guinea-Bissau," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 492-515, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:55:y:2023:i:3:p:492-515_4
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