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Price and Value Effects of Pecan Crop Forecasts, 1971–1987

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  • Shafer, Carl E.

Abstract

Price equations incorporating USDA October crop forecasts and June pecan stocks provided reasonable formulations for pecan price explanation and forecasting. USDA crop forecasts exceeded final reported production in 12 of the 18 seasons from 1970 to 1987, probably resulting in slightly lower prices and crop values. Large crop forecast errors in both direction and level in 1986 and 1987 confounded the price determination process. Nevertheless, producer prices may have been lower absent the October crop forecasts, which somewhat reduce buyers' uncertainty regarding supply. Early crop estimates provided a better explanation of price behavior than postseason revised production data.

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  • Shafer, Carl E., 1989. "Price and Value Effects of Pecan Crop Forecasts, 1971–1987," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 97-103, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:21:y:1989:i:01:p:97-103_00
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    1. Cheng, Guo & Dharmasena, Senarath & Capps, Oral, Jr., 2017. "The Taste for Variety: Demand Analysis for Nut Products in the United States," Reports 285248, Texas A&M University, Agribusiness, Food, and Consumer Economics Research Center.

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