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An Application of Safety-First Probability Limits in a Discrete Stochastic Farm Management Programming Model

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  • Hatch, Upton
  • Atwood, Joseph
  • Segar, James

Abstract

A sequential decision-making model was developed, and data from farm-raised catfish production were used to demonstrate its use. Outcomes of sequences of decisions which satisfied chance constraints on ending cash balances were traced through a specified time period. Discrete choice variables were specified due to the fixed nature of pond facilities. Recourse actions specified were sale of production in excess of endogenously determined transfer levels or purchase of inputs to supplement needs of the next production stage. Production activities cannot be changed during the planning period. Only yield variability was considered due to its impact on relative competitiveness among growth stages. Deviations were calculated from endogenously determined target levels based on goal and probability limits.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatch, Upton & Atwood, Joseph & Segar, James, 1989. "An Application of Safety-First Probability Limits in a Discrete Stochastic Farm Management Programming Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 65-72, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:21:y:1989:i:01:p:65-72_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Blank, Steven C., 2001. "The Challenge To Think Big As American Agriculture Shrinks," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Blank, Steven C., 2001. "Globalization, Cropping Choices, and Profitability in American Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 315-326, August.

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