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An Evaluation of the Rice Outlook and Situation Price Forecasts

Author

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  • Elam, Emmett W.
  • Holder, Shelby H.

Abstract

The Rice Outlook and Situation (RO&S) forecasts were compared to the forecasts of a univariate Box-Jenkins (BJ) model. On balance, the RO&S forecasts had lower mean square forecast errors and lower mean absolute forecast errors than the BJ model forecasts. The differences in the squared and absolute forecast errors were not significant, however. Based on the concept of conditional efficiency as set forth by Granger and Newbold, it was found that the BJ forecasts did not add any information that might improve forecast accuracy beyond what was already incorporated in the RO&S forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Elam, Emmett W. & Holder, Shelby H., 1985. "An Evaluation of the Rice Outlook and Situation Price Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 155-162, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:17:y:1985:i:02:p:155-162_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:470-482 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. No, Sung Chul & Salassi, Michael E., 2008. "A Sequential Rationality and Efficiency Test of U.S. Department of Agriculture Program Crop Price Estimates: Rice, Wheat, and Soybeans," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6814, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Sung No & Michael Salassi, 2009. "A Sequential Rationality Test of USDA Preliminary Price Estimates for Selected Program Crops: Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(4), pages 470-482, November.
    5. Setia, Parveen & Childs, Nathan & Wailes, Eric & Livezey, Janet, 1994. "The U.S. Rice Industry," Agricultural Economic Reports 305473, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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