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A Two-Stage Approach to Civil Conflict: Contested Incompatibilities and Armed Violence

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  • Bartusevičius, Henrikas
  • Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede

Abstract

We present a two-stage approach to civil conflict analysis. Unlike conventional approaches that focus only on armed conflict and treat all other cases as “at peace,” we first distinguish cases with and without contested incompatibilities (Stage 1) and then whether or not contested incompatibilities escalate to armed conflict (Stage 2). This allows us to analyze factors that relate to conflict origination (onset of incompatibilities) and factors that predict conflict militarization (onset of armed violence). Using new data on incompatibilities and armed conflict, we replicate and extend three prior studies of violent civil conflict, reformulated as a two-stage process, considering different estimation procedures and potential selection problems. We find that the group-based horizontal political inequalities highlighted in research on violent civil conflict clearly relate to conflict origination but have no clear association with militarization, whereas other features emphasized as shaping the risk of civil war, such as refugee flows and soft state power, predict militarization but not incompatibilities. A two-stage approach to conflict analysis can help advance theories of civil conflict, assess alternative mechanisms through which explanatory variables are thought to influence conflict, and guide new data-collection efforts.

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  • Bartusevičius, Henrikas & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2019. "A Two-Stage Approach to Civil Conflict: Contested Incompatibilities and Armed Violence," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 225-248, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:73:y:2019:i:01:p:225-248_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Solveig Hillesund, 2022. "To fight or demonstrate? Micro foundations of inequality and conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(2), pages 166-190, March.
    2. Radatz, Laura & Baten, Joerg, 2023. "Measuring Multidimensional Inequality and Conflict in Africa and in a Global Comparison," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277637, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Tobias Ide & Miguel Rodriguez Lopez & Christiane Fröhlich & Jürgen Scheffran, 2021. "Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 568-582, May.
    4. Solveig Hillesund, 2023. "Choosing tactics: Horizontal inequalities and the risk of violent and nonviolent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(6), pages 906-920, November.
    5. Escallón, Jose Michael Villarreal, 2021. "The historical relationship between agrarian reforms and internal armed conflicts: Relevant factors for the Colombian post-conflict scenario," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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