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Deals with the Devil? Conflict Amnesties, Civil War, and Sustainable Peace

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  • Dancy, Geoff

Abstract

Do legal amnesties for combatants help end civil wars? International policy experts often take it for granted that amnesties promote negotiated settlements with rebels. However, a large number of amnesties are followed by continued fighting or a return to the battlefield. What, then, are the factors that make amnesties effective or ineffective? In this article I use a disaggregated data set of all amnesties enacted in the context of internal war since 1946 to evaluate a bargaining theory of amnesties and peace. Testing hypotheses about conflict patterns using models that account for selection, I find that (1) only amnesties passed following conflict termination help resolve civil wars, (2) amnesties are more effective when they are embedded in peace agreements, and (3) amnesties that grant immunity for serious rights violations have no observable pacifying effects. These policy-relevant findings represent a new breakthrough in an ossified “peace versus justice” debate pitting security specialists against global human rights advocates.

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  • Dancy, Geoff, 2018. "Deals with the Devil? Conflict Amnesties, Civil War, and Sustainable Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 387-421, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:72:y:2018:i:02:p:387-421_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    2. Deepen, Yannick & Kurtenbach, Sabine, 2023. "Coping with complexity: Dealing with non-state armed actors," GIGA Working Papers 337, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    3. Faouzia Zeraoulia, 2023. "The National Reconciliation Process in Algeria During the Bouteflika’s Era: The Official Narrative," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 10(3), pages 220-250, September.
    4. James Meernik & Kimi King, 2020. "The Security Consequences of Bearing Witness," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(5), pages 933-957, May.
    5. Lesley-Ann Daniels, 2020. "How and When Amnesty during Conflict Affects Conflict Termination," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(9), pages 1612-1637, October.
    6. Joseph M Cox, 2020. "Negotiating justice: Ceasefires, peace agreements, and post-conflict justice," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 466-481, May.

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