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The Influence of Firm Global Supply Chains and Foreign Currency Undervaluations on US Trade Disputes

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  • Jensen, J. Bradford
  • Quinn, Dennis P.
  • Weymouth, Stephen

Abstract

We apply insights from “new, new” trade theory to explain a puzzling decline in US firm antidumping (AD) filings in an era of persistent foreign currency undervaluations and increasing import competition. Firms exhibit heterogeneity both within and across industries regarding foreign direct investment (FDI). We propose that firms making vertical or resource-seeking investments abroad will be less likely to file AD petitions, and firms are likely to undertake vertical FDI in the context of currency undervaluation. Hence, we argue, the increasing vertical FDI of US firms makes trade disputes far less likely. We use firm-level data to examine the universe of US manufacturing firms and find that AD filers generally conduct no intrafirm trade with filed-against countries. We also find that persistent currency undervaluation is associated over time with increased vertical FDI and intrafirm trade by US multinational corporations (MNCs) in the undervaluing country. Among larger US MNCs, the likelihood of an AD filing is negatively associated with increases in intrafirm trade. In the context of currency undervaluation, we confirm the existing finding that undervaluation is associated with more AD filings. We also find, however, that high levels of intrafirm imports from countries with undervalued currencies significantly decrease the likelihood of AD filings. Our study highlights the centrality of firm heterogeneity in international trade and investment in understanding political mobilization over international economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, J. Bradford & Quinn, Dennis P. & Weymouth, Stephen, 2015. "The Influence of Firm Global Supply Chains and Foreign Currency Undervaluations on US Trade Disputes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 913-947, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:69:y:2015:i:04:p:913-947_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Ka Zeng & Karen Sebold & Yue Lu, 2020. "Global value chains and corporate lobbying for trade liberalization," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 409-443, April.
    2. Ka Zeng & Yue Lu & Ya‐wei Li, 2021. "Trade agreements and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation: Evidence from Chinese industries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 533-582, November.
    3. Minyoung Kim & Curba Morris Lampert & Raja Roy, 2020. "Regionalization of R&D activities: (Dis)economies of interdependence and inventive performance," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 51(7), pages 1054-1075, September.
    4. Soo Yeon Kim & Gabriele Spilker, 2019. "Global value chains and the political economy of WTO disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 239-260, June.
    5. Ari Van Assche & Byron Gangnes, . "Global value chains and the fragmentation of trade policy coalitions," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    6. Bown, Chad P. & Erbahar, Aksel & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2021. "Global value chains and the removal of trade protection," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Ludema, Rodney D. & Mayda, Anna Maria & Yu, Zhi & Yu, Miaojie, 2021. "The political economy of protection in GVCs: Evidence from Chinese micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Jieun Lee & Iain Osgood, 2018. "Exports, Jobs, Growth! Congressional Hearings on US Trade Agreements," Working Papers 667, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    9. Ryan M. Weldzius, 2021. "The end of currency manipulation? Global production networks and exchange rate outcomes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 514-532, November.
    10. Aydin B. Yildirim & J. Tyson Chatagnier & Arlo Poletti & Dirk De Bièvre, 2018. "The internationalization of production and the politics of compliance in WTO disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 49-75, March.
    11. Harish, Nikki & Plouffe, Michael, 2018. "The Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries," OSF Preprints chzpq, Center for Open Science.
    12. Dirk De Bièvre & Arlo Poletti, 2020. "Towards Explaining Varying Degrees of Politicization of EU Trade Agreement Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 243-253.
    13. Soo Yeon Kim & B. Peter Rosendorff, 2021. "Firms, states, and global production," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 405-414, November.
    14. Jieun Lee & Iain Osgood, 2019. "Exports, jobs, growth! Congressional hearings on US trade agreements," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26, March.
    15. B. Peter Rosendorff & Alastair Smith, 2018. "Domestic political determinants of the onset of WTO disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 243-272, June.
    16. Benjamin A. T. Graham & Noel P. Johnston & Allison F. Kingsley, 2018. "Even Constrained Governments Take," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(8), pages 1784-1813, September.
    17. Andreas Dür & Lisa Lechner, 2023. "Winners and Losers From Trade Agreements: Stock Market Reactions to TPP and TTIP," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(4), pages 200-211.
    18. Timm Betz & Amy Pond & Weiwen Yin, 2021. "Investment agreements and the fragmentation of firms across countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 755-791, October.
    19. Iku Yoshimoto, . "Globalized production processes and foreign governmental lobbies: Analysing the United States Foreign Agents Registration Act reports," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    20. Jeheung Ryu & Randall W. Stone, 2018. "Plaintiffs by proxy: A firm-level approach to WTO dispute resolution," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 273-308, June.
    21. Jared Cory & Michael Lerner & Iain Osgood, 2021. "Supply Chain Linkages and the Extended Carbon Coalition," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 69-87, January.
    22. Gabriele Spilker & Thomas Bernauer & In Song Kim & Helen Milner & Iain Osgood & Dustin Tingley, 2018. "Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 189-242, June.
    23. Jong Hee Park & Byung Koo Kim, 2020. "Why your neighbor matters: Positions in preferential trade agreement networks and export growth in global value chains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 381-410, November.
    24. Soo Yeon Kim, 2021. "Investment commitments in PTAs and MNCS in partner countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 415-442, November.
    25. Leonardo Baccini & Iain Osgood & Stephen Weymouth, 2019. "The service economy: U.S. trade coalitions in an era of deindustrialization," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 261-296, June.

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