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Exogenous Shocks, Foreign Aid, and Civil War

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  • Savun, Burcu
  • Tirone, Daniel C.

Abstract

The recent civil war literature suggests that negative economic shocks in low-income countries increase the risk of civil war. Foreign aid can be an effective conflict-prevention tool in times of severe economic conditions. Aid cushions government spending from the downward pressures of economic shocks, providing recipient governments with resources they can use to make rebellion a less attractive option for aggrieved domestic groups. Using Official Development Assistance (ODA) data covering 1990 through 2004, we find that foreign aid appears to be a useful tool for preventing civil wars in the wake of negative economic shocks, and as such aid should be assessed by donors with these conflict-suppressing aspects in mind.

Suggested Citation

  • Savun, Burcu & Tirone, Daniel C., 2012. "Exogenous Shocks, Foreign Aid, and Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 363-393, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:66:y:2012:i:03:p:363-393_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Dijkstra, Geske, 2018. "Aid and good governance: Examining aggregate unintended effects of aid," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 225-232.
    2. Kotsadam, Andreas & Østby, Gudrun & Rustad, Siri Aas & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Urdal, Henrik, 2018. "Development aid and infant mortality. Micro-level evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 59-69.
    3. Maekawa, Wakako, 2024. "United Nations peacekeeping operations and multilateral foreign aid: Credibility of good governance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Patrick M. Regan & Richard W. Frank, 2014. "Migrant remittances and the onset of civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(5), pages 502-520, November.
    5. Richard Bluhm & Martin Gassebner & Sarah Langlotz & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, March.
    6. Jonas Gamso & Jikuo Lu & Farhod Yuldashev, 2021. "Does foreign aid volatility increase international migration?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 581-598, July.
    7. Berlanda, Andrea & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Rohner, Dominic & Sunde, Uwe, 2024. "Medication against conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Martin C. Steinwand, 2015. "Foreign aid and political stability," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(4), pages 395-424, September.
    9. Wong, Pui-Hang, 2017. "How development aid explains (or not) the rise and fall of insurgent attacks in Iraq," MERIT Working Papers 2017-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. George, Justin & Adelaja, Adesoji, 2022. "Armed conflicts, forced displacement and food security in host communities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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