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Oil and Revolutionary Governments: Fuel for International Conflict

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  • Colgan, Jeff D.

Abstract

Oil-exporting states, or petrostates, engage in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) at a much higher rate on average than nonpetrostates. Why is this so? Further, what explains the variation among the petrostates in adopting aggressive foreign policies and engaging in MIDs on that basis? This article develops a theory that proposes that revolutionary petrostates have a higher propensity to launch MIDs than comparable nonpetrostates. This theory is tested with statistical analysis using a new quantitative data set that identifies revolutionary governments in the period 1945–2001. The results show that petro-revolutionary governments constitute a special threat to international peace and security. This evidence of resource-backed aggression challenges the conventional view of petrostates as the targets of international competition for resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Colgan, Jeff D., 2010. "Oil and Revolutionary Governments: Fuel for International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 661-694, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:64:y:2010:i:04:p:661-694_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Neudorfer, Natascha S., 2018. "Commodities and corruption – How the middle class and democratic institutions lead to less corruption in resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 175-191.
    2. Jeff Colgan, 2012. "Measuring Revolution," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(4), pages 444-467, September.
    3. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2014. "Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior," Working Paper Series WP14-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Lala Muradova & Ross James Gildea, 2021. "Oil wealth and US public support for war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 3-19, January.
    5. Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2015. "The Geography of Interstate Resource Wars," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 267-315.
    6. Bakaki Zorzeta, 2016. "Fossil Fuel Rents: Who Initiates International Crises?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 173-190, April.
    7. Dawud Ansari & Mariza Montes de Oca Leon & Helen Schlüter, 2021. "What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Korotayev, Andrey & Bilyuga, Stanislav & Belalov, Ilya & Goldstone, Jack, 2018. "Oil prices, socio-political destabilization risks, and future energy technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 304-310.
    9. Natalini, Davide & Bravo, Giangiacomo & Newman, Edward, 2020. "Fuel riots: definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2017. "Oil prices and interstate conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(6), pages 575-596, November.
    11. Colgan, Jeff, 2011. "Oil and resource-backed aggression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1669-1676, March.
    12. Pasten, Cesar & Santamarina, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Energy and quality of life," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 468-476.

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