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Intervention and Democracy

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  • de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno
  • Downs, George W.

Abstract

Recent events have raised questions about the extent to which military intervention promotes democracy and the degree to which this depends on the nature of the intervener. We argue that traction on these issues is best obtained by focusing on the policies of the target state that have the greatest implications for the political survival of the intervening state's leader and the kind of governmental institutions in the target state that are most likely to produce them. This perspective generally—although not always—predicts that third-party military intervention in civil wars, other intra- or interstate disputes and wars will lead to little if any improvement, and all too often erosion in the trajectory of democratic development. Three hypotheses on the impact of third-party intervention by democracies, autocracies, and the United Nations are then tested and strongly supported against a counterfactual expectation of what the democratic trajectory would have been in the absence of intervention.We benefited greatly from the wise counsel of Feryal Cherif, Michael Gilligan, Shanker Satyanath, and Alastair Smith, each of whom read or discussed in depth earlier versions of this study. Patrick Regan was also extremely helpful in providing data and guidance in the use of the data on interventions that he has made available. The study was significantly improved by the insightful advice of the anonymous reviewers (we wish we could thank them by name) and by Lisa Martin's able and thoughtful guidance. Authors often complain about referees; we have nothing but praise for the contributions they made. Of course, we alone are responsible for any errors and for all remaining shortcomings in this investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Downs, George W., 2006. "Intervention and Democracy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 627-649, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:60:y:2006:i:03:p:627-649_06
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Janina Isabel Steinert & Sonja Grimm, 2015. "Too good to be true? United Nations peacebuilding and the democratization of war-torn states," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(5), pages 513-535, November.
    2. Christopher Coyne & Abigail Hall, 2014. "The empire strikes back: Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, and the Robust Political Economy of empire," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 359-385, December.
    3. Eric Mvukiyehe, 2018. "Promoting Political Participation in War-torn Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(8), pages 1686-1726, September.
    4. Absher, Samuel & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2023. "The consequences of CIA-sponsored regime change in Latin America," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Jeffrey Pickering & Emizet F. Kisangani, 2014. "Foreign military intervention and post-colonial state-building: An actor-centric analysis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(3), pages 244-264, July.
    6. Maekawa, Wakako, 2024. "United Nations peacekeeping operations and multilateral foreign aid: Credibility of good governance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Gunitsky, Seva, 2014. "From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 561-597, July.
    8. Jörg Faust & Maria Melody Garcia, 2014. "With or Without Force? European Public Opinion on Democracy Promotion," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 861-878, July.
    9. Coyne Christopher J, 2011. "The Political Economy of the Creeping Militarization of U.S. Foreign Policy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-27, May.
    10. Berger, Daniel & Corvalan, Alejandro & Easterly, William & Satyanath, Shanker, 2013. "Do superpower interventions have short and long term consequences for democracy?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 22-34.
    11. Alastair Smith, 2009. "Political Groups, Leader Change, and the Pattern of International Cooperation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 853-877, December.
    12. William Easterly & Shanker Satyanath & Daniel Berger, 2008. "Superpower Interventions and their Consequences for Democracy: An Empirical Inquiry," NBER Working Papers 13992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Daniel McCormack & Henry Pascoe, 2017. "Sanctions and Preventive War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(8), pages 1711-1739, September.
    14. Christopher J. Coyne, 2017. "The law and economics of rule reform," Chapters, in: Todd J. Zywicki & Peter J. Boettke (ed.), Research Handbook on Austrian Law and Economics, chapter 5, pages 92-108, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Mvukiyehe, Eric & Samii, Cyrus, 2017. "Promoting Democracy in Fragile States: Field Experimental Evidence from Liberia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 254-267.
    16. Christopher Coyne & Adam Pellillo, 2012. "The art of seeing like a state: State building in Afghanistan, the DR Congo, and beyond," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 35-52, March.
    17. Jacob D. Kathman, 2013. "United Nations peacekeeping personnel commitments, 1990–2011," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 532-549, November.

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