Conflict and cooperation in OPEC: some additional economic considerations

In a recent article in this journal Paul Jabber presents a cogent analysis of many of the potential conflicts that may face OPEC over the coming years and concludes that a collapse of the cartel is extremely unlikely, even under conditions of severe political dispute among OPEC members. I share Jabber's view that a collapse of the cartel is not probable in the medium-term future. I believe, however, that Jabber has not sufficiently recognized the divergencies as well as the similarities in the economic interests of the oil countries, and that, as a result, his analysis significantly overstates the likelihood that the real level of oil prices, i.e., the nominal price adjusted for the depreciating purchasing power of currencies, is likely to average near if not above the levels initially established with the first full-fledged flexing of OPEC's muscles in 1973–74. After the 1973–74 increases, the real price of oil fell substantially through 1978, although of course nowhere near preembargo levels. Thus Jabber's prediction was that a significant increase in real oil prices will occur over the coming decade.