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Trends in ageing and ageing-in-place and the future market for institutional care: scenarios and policy implications

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  • Alders, Peter
  • Schut, Frederik T.

Abstract

In several OECD countries the percentage of elderly in long-term care institutions has been declining as a result of ageing-in-place. However, due to the rapid ageing of population in the next decades future demand for institutional care is likely to increase. In this paper we perform a scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of these two opposite trends on the demand for institutional elderly care in the Netherlands. We find that the demand for institutional care first declines as a result of the expected increase in the number of low-need elderly that age-in-place. This effect is strong at first but then peters out. After this first period the effect of the demographic trend takes over, resulting in an increase in demand for institutional care. We argue that the observed trends are likely to result in a growing mismatch between demand and supply of institutional care. Whereas the current stock of institutional care is primarily focussed on low-need (residential) care, future demand will increasingly consist of high-need (nursing home) care for people with cognitive as well as somatic disabilities. We discuss several policy options to reduce the expected mismatch between supply and demand for institutional care.

Suggested Citation

  • Alders, Peter & Schut, Frederik T., 2019. "Trends in ageing and ageing-in-place and the future market for institutional care: scenarios and policy implications," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 82-100, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:hecopl:v:14:y:2019:i:01:p:82-100_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Alders, Peter & Schut, Frederik T., 2019. "The 2015 long-term care reform in the Netherlands: Getting the financial incentives right?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 312-316.
    2. Bergeot, Julien & Tenand, Marianne, 2021. "Does informal care delay nursing home entry? Evidence from Dutch linked survey and administrative data," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2105, CEPREMAP.
    3. Ravensbergen, W.M. & Drewes, Y.M. & Hilderink, H.B.M. & Verschuuren, M. & Gussekloo, J. & Vonk, R.A.A., 2019. "Combined impact of future trends on healthcare utilisation of older people: A Delphi study," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(10), pages 947-954.
    4. Olugbenga Timo Oladinrin & Jayantha Wadu Mesthrige & Lekan Damilola Ojo & João Alencastro & Muhammad Rana, 2023. "Smart Home Technologies to Facilitate Ageing-in-Place: Professionals Perception," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Krabbe-Alkemade, Yvonne & Makai, Peter & Shestalova, Victoria & Voesenek, Tessa, 2020. "Containing or shifting? Health expenditure decomposition for the aging Dutch population after a major reform," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 268-274.
    6. Alders, Peter & Schut, Frederik T., 2022. "Strategic cost-shifting in long-term care. Evidence from the Netherlands," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 43-48.

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