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Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system

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  • Hu, Bo

Abstract

The long-term care system in China relies heavily on informal care provided by family members. This study makes projections on the demand for informal care among Chinese older people between 2015 and 2035 and quantifies the level of long-term care resources needed to meet their needs. The data come from longitudinal information in a nationally representative sample, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013. The macrosimulation approach (PSSRU model) and the Markov approach are integrated into one Bayesian modelling framework. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to capture parameter uncertainty. We project that the demand for informal care will increase from 41.3 million people (95% CI: 39.9–42.7) in 2015 to 82.6 million people (95% CI: 78.3–86.9) in 2035. The long-term care system faces unbalanced pressure of demand for informal care from different groups of older people. The projected demand is sensitive to changes in older people’s disability trajectory and the availability of formal care provided by the government, but less sensitive to an increase in singleton households in the future. We discuss possible policy measures to alleviate the mounting pressure on the demand for informal care.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Bo, 2019. "Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 61-81, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:hecopl:v:14:y:2019:i:01:p:61-81_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao Rong & Zhipeng Zhou & Yihui Su, 2022. "Factors Affecting the Job Satisfaction of Caregivers in a Home-Based Elderly Care Program," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Bo Hu & Peter Shin & Eun-jeong Han & YongJoo Rhee, 2022. "Projecting Informal Care Demand among Older Koreans between 2020 and 2067," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-12, May.
    3. Han Hu & Yafei Si & Bingqin Li, 2020. "Decomposing Inequality in Long-Term Care Need Among Older Adults with Chronic Diseases in China: A Life Course Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Zhonghua Wang & Xue Yang & Mingsheng Chen, 2022. "Inequality and Associated Factors in Utilization of Long-Term Care Among Chinese Older People: Evidence from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 467-486, April.
    5. Luis Eduardo Genaro & José Victor Marconato & Elaine Pereira da Silva Tagliaferro & Felipe Eduardo Pinotti & Aylton Valsecki Júnior & Tânia Adas Saliba & Fernanda Lopez Rosell, 2024. "Home Care for the Elderly: An Integrated Approach to Perception, Quality of Life, and Cognition," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(5), pages 1-14, April.

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