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The Bias of Forecasts from a First-Order Autoregression

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  • Magnus, Jan R.
  • Pesaran, Bahram

Abstract

The exact finite sample behavior is investigated on the bias of multiperiod leastsquares forecasts in the normal autoregressive model yt = α + βyt–1 + ut. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of the bias and an expression is presented which we use to obtain exact numerical results for finite samples. The unit root and near unit root behavior is studied in detail and some popular preconceptions about the behavior of the bias are shown to be false.

Suggested Citation

  • Magnus, Jan R. & Pesaran, Bahram, 1991. "The Bias of Forecasts from a First-Order Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 222-235, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:02:p:222-235_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Sentana, Enrique, 2004. "Factor representing portfolios in large asset markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 257-289, April.
    2. Banerjee, A.N., 1997. "The sensitivity of estimates, inferences and forecasts of linear models," Other publications TiSEM 3238733e-f996-4fd9-95ec-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Borm, Peter & Keiding, H & McLean, R.P. & Oortwijn, S & Tijs, S, 1992. "The Compromise Value for NTU-Games," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 21(2), pages 175-189.
    4. Jurg, A.P. & Jansen, M.J.M. & Potters, J.A.M. & Tijs, S.H., 1992. "A symmetrization for finite two-person games," Other publications TiSEM 2087852e-6417-4cb5-abb1-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.

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