IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/etheor/v25y2009i04p1050-1069_09.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The New Zealand Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Hall, Viv B.
  • McDermott, C. John

Abstract

Our paper is in the spirit of Rex Bergstrom's interests and research in cyclical growth models and his meticulous attention to underlying data series. We develop a new quarterly real GDP series for post–World War II New Zealand, derive a new “benchmark” set of classical business cycle turning points, and establish nonparametric classical cycle characteristics. Markov-switching models, estimated by Gibbs-sampling methods, are used to derive mean growth rate and volatility regimes and to add to existing knowledge. The resulting properties, involving cycle asymmetries, volatility, diversity and duration dependence, and differing mean growth rate and volatility regimes, can be used to underpin a next generation of cyclical growth models for New Zealand, in the Bergstrom tradition.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2009. "The New Zealand Business Cycle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 1050-1069, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:25:y:2009:i:04:p:1050-1069_09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0266466608090403/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Milan Christian de Wet, 2021. "Modelling the Australasian Financial Cycle: A Markov-Regime Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, June.
    2. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.
    3. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 18698, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2019. "Business Cycle Measurement in India," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 121-152, Springer.
    5. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2021. "Changes in New Zealand's business insolvency rates after the GFC," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 173-187, May.
    6. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2015. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 4688, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. John McDermott & Viv B. Hall, "undated". "A quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Hall, Viv & McDermott, John, 2019. "Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the GFC," Working Paper Series 8251, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    12. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2016. "Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 261-280, September.
    13. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    14. Roger Bowden & Jennifer Zhu, 2010. "Multi-scale variation, path risk and long-term portfolio management," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 783-796.
    15. Viv B Hall & C John McDermott, 2019. "Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 19_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    16. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 2364, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    17. Willy Chetwin, 2012. "Business cycle review, 1998-2011," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 14-27, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:25:y:2009:i:04:p:1050-1069_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/ect .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.