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Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience

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  • HEIL, MARK T.
  • SELDEN, THOMAS M.

Abstract

This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models.

Suggested Citation

  • Heil, Mark T. & Selden, Thomas M., 2001. "Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 63-83, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:6:y:2001:i:01:p:63-83_00
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