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Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives

Author

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  • Assunção, Juliano
  • Chein, Flávia

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

Suggested Citation

  • Assunção, Juliano & Chein, Flávia, 2016. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 581-602, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:21:y:2016:i:05:p:581-602_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Marques do Prado Tanure, Tarik & Domingues, Edson Paulo & Magalhães, Aline Souza, 2024. "Os impactos regionais das mudanças climáticas sobre a produtividade agrícola familiar e patronal no Brasil," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 62(1), January.
    2. Cavalcanti, Francisco & Helfand, Steven M. & Moreira, Ajax, 2024. "Climate Change, Drought, and Agricultural Production in Brazil," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344267, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    3. Nazareth, M. & Cunha, D. & Gurgel, A., 2018. "Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and Economic Performance: an exercise using a Dynamic CGE Model," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275876, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Costa, Lucas & Sant'Anna, André Albuquerque & Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann, 2023. "Barren lives: drought shocks and agricultural vulnerability in the Brazilian Semi-Arid," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 603-623, December.
    5. Oussama ZOUABI, 2022. "The effect of climate change on the production of irrigated and non-irrigated plants: A short and long term ARDL modelling for the case of Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 55, pages 75-92.
    6. Thyena Karen Magalhães Dias & Edward Martins Costa & Filipe Augusto Xavier Lima & Helson Gomes de Souza, 2021. "Regional Heterogeneity of the Family Farming in Brazil: an Analysis Using a Spatial Stochastic Frontier," Journal of Agricultural Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(3), pages 179-214, September.
    7. Juliano Assunção & Flávia Chein & Giovanni Leo Frisari & Sérgio Mikio Koyama, 2023. "Another Boiling Frog: the impact of climate-related events on financial outcomes in Brazil," Working Papers Series 572, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Lázari, Nicoli Carolini de & Magalhães, Marcelo Marques de, 2019. "Crescimento da PTF segundo tamanho de estabelecimentos rurais na região Sudeste, de 1985 a 2006," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 57(2), January.

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