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Did the Kyoto Protocol fail? An evaluation of the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions

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  • Grunewald, Nicole
  • Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions using a sample of 170 countries over the period 1992–2009. We propose the use of a difference-in-differences estimator with matching to address the endogeneity of the policy variable, namely Kyoto commitments. Countries are matched according to observable characteristics to create a suitable counterfactual. We correspondingly estimate a panel data model for the whole sample and the matched sample and compare the results to those obtained using an instrumental variable approach. The main results indicate that Kyoto Protocol commitments have a measurable reducing effect on CO2 emissions, indicating that a treaty often deemed a ‘failure’ may in fact be producing some non-negligible effects for those who signed it.

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  • Grunewald, Nicole & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2016. "Did the Kyoto Protocol fail? An evaluation of the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:21:y:2016:i:01:p:1-22_00
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    1. Chien‐Chiang Lee & Mei‐Ping Chen & Wei Xu, 2022. "Assessing the impacts of formal and informal regulations on ecological footprint," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 989-1017, October.
    2. Miyamoto, Mai & Takeuchi, Kenji, 2019. "Climate agreement and technology diffusion: Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on international patent applications for renewable energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1331-1338.
    3. Yu, Jian & Liu, Peng & Shi, Xunpeng & Ai, Xianneng, 2023. "China’s emissions trading scheme, firms’ R&D investment and emissions reduction," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1021-1037.
    4. Bierbrauer, Felix & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Ockenfels, Axel & Schmidt, Klaus M. & Südekum, Jens, 2021. "A CO2-border adjustment mechanism as a building block of a climate club," Kiel Policy Brief 151, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Almer, Christian & Winkler, Ralph, 2017. "Analyzing the effectiveness of international environmental policies: The case of the Kyoto Protocol," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-151.
    6. Erum Rehman & Muhammad Ikram & Shazia Rehman & Ma Tie Feng, 2021. "Growing green? Sectoral-based prediction of GHG emission in Pakistan: a novel NDGM and doubling time model approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12169-12191, August.
    7. Destek, Mehmet Akif, 2019. "Investigation on the role of economic, social and political globalization on environment: Evidence from CEECs," MPRA Paper 106937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wan, Panbing & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Chen, Lin, 2024. "Environmental co-benefits of climate mitigation: Evidence from clean development mechanism projects in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Mele, Antonio & Paglialunga, Elena & Sforna, Giorgia, 2021. "Climate cooperation from Kyoto to Paris: What can be learnt from the CDM experience?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Nerea Portillo Juan & Vicente Negro Valdecantos & José María del Campo, 2022. "A New Climate Change Analysis Parameter: A Global or a National Approach Dilemma," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Núñez-Rocha, Thaís & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2019. "Are international environmental policies effective? The case of the Rotterdam and the Stockholm Conventions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 480-502.
    12. Stranadko, Nataliya, 2021. "EU-US climate cooperation: Challenges and opportunities for the implementation of the Paris agreement," Discussion Papers 02/2021, Europa-Kolleg Hamburg, Institute for European Integration.
    13. Yoomi Kim & Katsuya Tanaka & Shunji Matsuoka, 2020. "Environmental and economic effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    14. Cary, Michael, 2023. "Climate policy boosts trade competitiveness: Evidence from timber trade networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Kuriyama, Akihisa & Abe, Naoya, 2018. "Ex-post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol – quantification of CO2 mitigation impact in both Annex B and non-Annex B countries-," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 286-295.
    16. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2018. "Convergence in CO2 emissions: A spatial economic analysis with cross-country interactions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 222-238.
    17. Joel A. Rosado Anastacio, 2018. "Usando el método de control sintético para analizar la efectividad del Protocolo de Kioto para reducir las emisiones de CO2, CH4 y N2O en Espana," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(2), pages 341-379, December.
    18. Cary, Michael & Stephens, Heather M., 2024. "Economic, environmental, and technical gains from the Kyoto Protocol: Evidence from cement manufacturing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Maamoun, Nada, 2019. "The Kyoto protocol: Empirical evidence of a hidden success," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 227-256.
    20. Dyah Maya Nihayah & Evi Gravitiani & Siti Aisyah Tri Rahayu, 2021. "Does the Clean Development Mechanism Exist in Developing Countries After an International Agreement?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 409-417.

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