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An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

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  • GURGEL, ANGELO COSTA
  • PALTSEV, SERGEY
  • REILLY, JOHN
  • METCALF, GILBERT

Abstract

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgel, Angelo Costa & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John & Metcalf, Gilbert, 2011. "An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 155-176, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:16:y:2011:i:02:p:155-176_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Jeffrey Sachs & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Making Carbon Taxation A Generational Win Win," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 3-46, February.
    2. de Miguel, Carlos & Manzano, Baltasar, 2011. "Gradual green tax reforms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 50-58.
    3. Reilly, John M., 2012. "Green growth and the efficient use of natural resources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S1), pages 85-93.
    4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Andrey V. ZUBAREV & Andrey POLBIN, 2021. "Will the Paris accord accelerate climate change [Ускоряет Ли Парижское Соглашение Изменение Климата?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-37, February.
    5. Gavard, Claire & Voigt, Sebastian & Genty, Aurélien, 2022. "Using emissions trading schemes to reduce heterogeneous distortionary taxes: The case of recycling carbon auction revenues to support renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Luan Santos & Rafael Garaffa & André F. P. Lucena & Alexandre Szklo, 2018. "Impacts of Carbon Pricing on Brazilian Industry: Domestic Vulnerability and International Trade Exposure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.

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