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Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability

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  • Bateman, Bradley W.

Abstract

One of the most actively discussed aspects of Keynes's thought during the last decade has been his concern with uncertainty and probability theory. As the concerns of current macroeconomic theorists have turned increasingly to the effects of expectations and uncertainty, interest has grown in the fact that Keynes was the author of A Treatise on Probability (1921) and that uncertainty plays a prominent role in Chapter 12 of The General Theory as well as in three 1937 papers in which he summarized The General Theory's main point. Not surprisingly, though, there has been very little agreement in this recent discussion about exactly what the significance of Keynes's early work in probability was to his later work as an economist, or about what the roles of uncertainty and expectations are in The General Theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Bateman, Bradley W., 1987. "Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 97-119, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:ecnphi:v:3:y:1987:i:01:p:97-119_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Arena & Eric Nasica, 2021. "Keynes's Methodology and the Analysis of Economic Agent Behavior in a Complex World," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-10, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. E. G. Winslow, 1989. "'Human Logic' and Keynes's Economics: A Reply," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 67-70, Jan-Mar.
    3. Bateman, Bradley W., 2021. "Introduction to Symposium: Celebrating the Centenary of Keynes’s Treatise on Probability," OSF Preprints ftr5g, Center for Open Science.
    4. Feduzi, Alberto, 2010. "On Keynes's conception of the weight of evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 338-351, November.
    5. André Lapidus, 2020. "Why are philosophers more often right than others ? David Hume and general rules [David Hume et les règles générales : Pourquoi les philosophes ont-ils plus raison que les autres ?]," Post-Print hal-01714256, HAL.
    6. Carlos da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2008. "The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the "Fear of Floating"," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 64-79.
    7. Rivot, Sylvie, 2021. "Reading Keynes’s policy papers through the prism of his Treatise on Probability: information, expectations and revision of probabilities in economic policy," OSF Preprints s5qp9, Center for Open Science.
    8. Roberto Marchionatti, 2010. "J. M. Keynes, thinker of economic complexity," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 18(2), pages 115-146.
    9. Nicolas Piluso, 2015. "Un examen critique des liens entre le Traité des probabilités et la Théorie générale de Keynes," Post-Print hal-01399077, HAL.
    10. Michaël Lainé, 2016. "Uncertainty, Probability and Animal Spirit: The Ontology, Epistemology and Microeconomics of Investment of Keynes’s Theory [Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux]," Post-Print hal-04265018, HAL.
    11. Michaël Lainé, 2014. "Esprits animaux et habitus : convergences et approfondissements," Post-Print hal-04264967, HAL.
    12. Michaël Lainé, 2016. "Uncertainty, Probability and Animal Spirit [Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux]," Post-Print hal-02942874, HAL.
    13. Roger Koppl, 1991. "Retrospectives: Animal Spirits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 203-210, Summer.
    14. B. W. Bateman, 1989. ""Human Logic" and Keynes's Economics: A Comment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 63-67, Jan-Mar.
    15. Muchlinski, Elke, 2011. "Die Rezeption der John Maynard Keynes Manuskripte von 1904 bis 1911. Anregungen für die deutschsprachige Diskussion," Discussion Papers 2011/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    16. Courgeau, Daniel, 2012. "Probability and social science : methodologial relationships between the two approaches ?," MPRA Paper 43102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Alberto Feduzi, 2010. "On Keynes's conception of the Weight of Evidence," Post-Print hal-00870185, HAL.
    18. Christophe Lavialle, 2001. "L'épistémologie de Keynes et "l'hypothèse Wittgenstein" : La cohérence logique de la Théorie Générale de l'emploi, de l'intérêt et de la monnaie," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(1), pages 25-64.

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