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Natural Catastrophe Probable Maximum Loss

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  • Woo, G.

Abstract

The procedure for estimating probable maximum loss (PML) for natural catastrophes has evolved over the past few decades from a rather simplistic deterministic basis to a more sophisticated methodology based on loss exceedance probability curves, generated using catastrophe modelling software. This development process is reviewed, with an emphasis on the earthquake peril, which, because of its widespread threat to critical industrial installations, has been at the forefront of most PML advances. The coherent risk definition of PML is advocated as an improvement over standard quantile methods, which can give rise to anomalous aggregation results failing to satisfy the fundamental axiom of subadditivity, and so discouraging the pooling of risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Woo, G., 2002. "Natural Catastrophe Probable Maximum Loss," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(5), pages 943-959, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bracjl:v:8:y:2002:i:05:p:943-959_00
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    Cited by:

    1. A. K. Bahl & O. Baltzer & A. Rau-Chaplin & B. Varghese & A. Whiteway, 2013. "Achieving Speedup in Aggregate Risk Analysis using Multiple GPUs," Papers 1308.2572, arXiv.org.
    2. Martin Eling & Denis Toplek, 2009. "Modeling and Management of Nonlinear Dependencies–Copulas in Dynamic Financial Analysis," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 651-681, September.

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