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Another Game with Nature: An Ecological Regression Model of the British Two-Party Vote Ratio in 1970

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  • Crewe, Ivor
  • Payne, Clive

Abstract

This article develops a number of themes first raised in an earlier paper where we attempted to publicize the existence of Census data based, for the first time, on British parliamentary constituencies, and where we briefly described the potential and limits of a variety of available statistical techniques of analysis. Until the earlier paper was published, studies of British electoral behaviour using aggregate data were largely historical, generally used only the simplest statistical techniques such as cross-tabulations, and usually proceeded blithely unaware of the snares of ecological inference. A small number of more advanced analyses had appeared but none focused on Britain or even on England as a whole. Since our earlier article appeared, there have been two attempts to construct predictive models of Labour support by applying multivariate statistical analysis to aggregate-level data. As we show in this paper, both Barnett and Rasmussen produce models that are statistically less powerful than our own and are subject to various weaknesses, of which the most important is the failure to tackle the problem of ecological inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Crewe, Ivor & Payne, Clive, 1976. "Another Game with Nature: An Ecological Regression Model of the British Two-Party Vote Ratio in 1970," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 43-81, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:6:y:1976:i:01:p:43-81_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Kelley & Ian McAllister, 1983. "The methodology of aggregate analysis: Errors in traditional procedures and suggestions for improvement," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 461-474, October.
    2. R J Johnston, 1986. "Research Policy and Review 9. A Space for Place (or a Place for Space) in British Psephology: A Review of Recent Writings with Especial Reference to the General Election of 1983," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 18(5), pages 573-598, May.
    3. Charles Pattie & Daniel Dorling & Ron Johnston, 1995. "A Debt-owing Democracy: The Political Impact of Housing Market Recession at the British General Election of 1992," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 32(8), pages 1293-1315, August.
    4. Ron Johnston & Kelvyn Jones & Min-Hua Jen, 2009. "Regional Variations in Voting at British General Elections, 1950–2001: Group-Based Latent Trajectory Analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(3), pages 598-616, March.

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