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Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence

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  • Boutton, Andrew

Abstract

This article offers an explanation for the failures of US military assistance programs in some countries. The author argues that the effects of military aid are conditional upon the vulnerability of the recipient regime. Power consolidation by an insecure leader often provokes violent opposition. However, because military aid strengthens the security forces of the recipient state, it generates a moral hazard that encourages exclusionary power consolidation, with the expectation that continued military aid will help manage violent blowback. Using proxies for regime vulnerability and an instrument for US military aid, the study shows that military aid increases anti-regime violence in new regimes (particularly new democracies) and in all personalist regimes. In contrast, military assistance has no effect on violence in established, non-personalist regimes. The article develops a novel theory of how regime characteristics condition responses to external military support, and identifies a distinct mechanism through which military aid increases domestic political violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Boutton, Andrew, 2021. "Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 507-525, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:51:y:2021:i:2:p:507-525_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimant, Eugen & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2023. "Paying them to hate US: The effect of U.S. military aid on anti-American terrorism, 1968-2018," Discussion Paper Series 2023-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    2. Theodore McLauchlin & Lee JM Seymour & Simon Pierre Boulanger Martel, 2022. "Tracking the rise of United States foreign military training: IMTAD-USA, a new dataset and research agenda," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 286-296, March.
    3. Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2024. "Paying Them to Hate US: The Effect of US Military Aid on Anti-American Terrorism, 1968–2018," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2772-2802.

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