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How Exposure to Violence Affects Ethnic Voting

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  • Hadzic, Dino
  • Carlson, David
  • Tavits, Margit

Abstract

How does wartime exposure to ethnic violence affect the political preferences of ordinary citizens? Are high-violence communities more or less likely to reject the politicization of ethnicity post-war? We argue that community-level experience with wartime violence solidifies ethnic identities, fosters intra-ethnic cohesion and increases distrust toward non-co-ethnics, thereby making ethnic parties the most attractive channels of representation and contributing to the politicization of ethnicity. Employing data on wartime casualties at the community level and pre- as well as post-war election results in Bosnia, we find strong support for this argument. The findings hold across a number of robustness checks. Using post-war survey data, we also provide evidence that offers suggestive support for the proposed causal mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Hadzic, Dino & Carlson, David & Tavits, Margit, 2020. "How Exposure to Violence Affects Ethnic Voting," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 345-362, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:50:y:2020:i:1:p:345-362_16
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    Cited by:

    1. Miceal Canavan & Oguzhan Turkoglu, 2023. "Effect of group status and conflict on national identity: Evidence from the Brexit referendum in Northern Ireland," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(6), pages 921-934, November.
    2. Giacomo Lemoli & Gloria Gennaro, 2023. "War violence, nationalism, and party support: Evidence from Italy," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-22, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Kristin Fabbe & Chad Hazlett & Tolga Sinmazdemir, 2024. "Threat perceptions, loyalties and attitudes towards peace: The effects of civilian victimization among Syrian refugees in Turkey," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(3), pages 263-288, May.
    4. John A. Doces, 2024. "Electoral proximity, political violence, and personal wellbeing: An experimental analysis in West Africa," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 373-397, March.
    5. Giuliano, Paola & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2024. "Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 17110, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Schaub, Max, 2022. "Demographic and attitudinal legacies of the Armenian genocide," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Latest Ar, pages 1-18.
    7. Nicholas Haas & Prabin B. Khadka, 2020. "If They Endorse It, I Can't Trust It: How Outgroup Leader Endorsements Undercut Public Support for Civil War Peace Settlements," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 982-1000, October.

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