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Towards A Predictive Theory of Government Expenditure: Us Domestic Appropriations

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  • Davis, Otto A.
  • Dempster, M. A. H.
  • Wildavsky, Aaron

Abstract

The project on which this paper reports is aimed not only at increased understanding of the United States federal budget process, but also at predicting government expenditures in total and by bureau with a view to their determination within United States national econometric models. Estimates of likely expenditures using standard econometric techniques are poor, both in absolute terms and in comparison with our own work. Management of the economy should be improved by the use of predictors based on considering budgeting as a political process that is responsive to economic and social conditions. Use of mathematical models in the social sciences should be furthered, not by arguing their hypothetical utility, but by demonstrating that they work. The proof is in the prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Otto A. & Dempster, M. A. H. & Wildavsky, Aaron, 1974. "Towards A Predictive Theory of Government Expenditure: Us Domestic Appropriations," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 419-452, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:4:y:1974:i:04:p:419-452_00
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    Cited by:

    1. McPake, Barbara Isobel, 1996. "Public autonomous hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa: trends and issues," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-177, February.
    2. Zhao, Jihong & Ren, Ling & Lovrich, Nicholas P., 2010. "Budgetary support for police services in U.S. municipalities: Comparing political culture, socioeconomic characteristics and incrementalism as rival explanations for budget share allocation to police," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 266-275, May.

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