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Coups and Democracy

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  • Marinov, Nikolay
  • Goemans, Hein

Abstract

This study uses new data on coups d’état and elections to document a striking development: whereas the vast majority of successful coups before 1991 installed durable rules, the majority of coups after that have been followed by competitive elections. The article argues that after the Cold War, international pressure influenced the consequences of coups. In the post-Cold War era, countries that were most dependent on Western aid were the first to embrace competitive elections after their coups. This theory also helps explain the pronounced decline in the number of coups since 1991. While the coup d’état has been (and still is) the single most important factor leading to the downfall of democratic governments, these findings indicate that the new generation of coups has been far less harmful for democracy than their historical predecessors.

Suggested Citation

  • Marinov, Nikolay & Goemans, Hein, 2014. "Coups and Democracy," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 799-825, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:44:y:2014:i:04:p:799-825_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Gründler, Klaus, 2020. "Political Stability and Economic Prosperity: Are Coups Bad for Growth?," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224640, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Niclas Berggren & Christian Bjørnskov, 2022. "Academic freedom, institutions, and productivity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1313-1342, April.
    3. Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. & Edgell, Amanda B. & Hellmeier, Sebastian & Maerz, Seraphine F. & Lindberg, Staffan I., 2021. "How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 28(5), pages 885-907.
    4. Bjørnskov, Christian & Freytag, Andreas & Gutmann, Jerg, 2022. "Coups and the dynamics of media freedom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Antonis Adam & Kostas Karanatsis, 2019. "Sovereign Defaults and Democracy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 36-62, March.
    6. Bennett, Daniel L. & Bjørnskov, Christian & Gohmann, Stephan F., 2021. "Coups, regime transitions, and institutional consequences," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 627-643.
    7. Masanori Kubota & Kaoru Hidaka & Taku Yukawa, 2022. "The Post-Exile Fate of Leaders: A New Dataset," OSIPP Discussion Paper 22E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    8. Bjørnskov, Christian & Pfaff, Katharina, 2021. "Differences matter: The effect of coup types on physical integrity rights," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Bennett, Daniel L. & Bjørnskov, Christian & Gohmann, Stephan F., 2019. "Coups, Regime Transitions, and Institutional Change," Working Paper Series 1281, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Taku Yukawa & Kaoru Hidaka & Kaori Kushima & Masafumi Fujita, 2022. "Coup d’état and a democratic signal: The connection between protests and coups after the Cold War," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(6), pages 828-843, November.
    11. David F Damore & Michelle Kuenzi, 2019. "Executive turnovers in sub-Saharan Africa," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 21-40, March.
    12. Daniela Donno & Michael Neureiter, 2018. "Can human rights conditionality reduce repression? Examining the European Union’s economic agreements," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 335-357, September.
    13. Jamie Levin & Joseph MacKay & Anne Spencer Jamison & Abouzar Nasirzadeh & Anthony Sealey, 2021. "A test of the democratic peacekeeping hypothesis: Coups, democracy, and foreign military deployments," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 355-367, May.
    14. Travis B. Curtice & Daniel Arnon, 2020. "Deterring threats and settling scores: How coups influence respect for physical integrity rights," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 655-673, November.

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