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When and Whom to Join: The Expansion of Ongoing Violent Interstate Conflicts

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  • Joyce, Kyle A.
  • Ghosn, Faten
  • Bayer, Reşat

Abstract

The opportunity and willingness framework has received much attention in research on interstate conflict expansion. This framework is extended here by examining when and what side third parties join during ongoing conflicts. It is maintained that without examining both timing and side selection, understanding of conflict expansion is limited. The timing and side joined in interstate disputes between 1816 and 2001 are analysed using a competing risks duration model. The findings contribute novel insights into many key debates in conflict research such as balancing versus bandwagoning, as well as alliance reliability and the democratic peace. The results also indicate that relying on statistical models that do not distinguish between which side a third party can join may produce misleading results.

Suggested Citation

  • Joyce, Kyle A. & Ghosn, Faten & Bayer, Reşat, 2014. "When and Whom to Join: The Expansion of Ongoing Violent Interstate Conflicts," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 205-238, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:44:y:2014:i:01:p:205-238_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Renato Corbetta, 2015. "Between indifference and coercion: Third-party intervention techniques in ongoing disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 3-27, February.
    2. Zachary C. Shirkey, 2020. "Which wars spread? Commitment problems and military intervention," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 133-151, March.
    3. Renato Corbetta & Molly M. Melin, 2018. "Exploring the Threshold between Conflict Management and Joining in Biased Interventions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(10), pages 2205-2231, November.

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