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Violence and Election Fraud: Evidence from Afghanistan

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  • Weidmann, Nils B.
  • Callen, Michael

Abstract

What explains local variation in electoral manipulation in countries with ongoing internal conflict? The theory of election fraud developed in this article relies on the candidates’ loyalty networks as the agents manipulating the electoral process. It predicts (i) that the relationship between violence and fraud follows an inverted U-shape and (ii) that loyalty networks of both incumbent and challenger react differently to the security situation on the ground. Disaggregated violence and election results data from the 2009 Afghanistan presidential election provide empirical results consistent with this theory. Fraud is measured both by a forensic measure, and by using results from a visual inspection of a random sample of the ballot boxes. The results align with the two predicted relationships, and are robust to other violence and fraud measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Weidmann, Nils B. & Callen, Michael, 2013. "Violence and Election Fraud: Evidence from Afghanistan," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 53-75, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:43:y:2013:i:01:p:53-75_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Berman, Eli & Callen, Michael & Gibson, Clark C. & Long, James D. & Rezaee, Arman, 2019. "Election fairness and government legitimacy in Afghanistan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 292-317.
    2. Francesco Trebbi & Eric Weese, 2019. "Insurgency and Small Wars: Estimation of Unobserved Coalition Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 463-496, March.
    3. Berman, Eli & Callen, Mike & Gibson, Clark C. & Long, James D. & Rezaee, Arman, 2019. "Election fairness and government legitimacy in Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H. Felter & Hani Mansour & Daniel I. Rees, 2013. "Election Fraud and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," HiCN Working Papers 158, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Robert M. Gonzalez, 2021. "Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-51, April.
    6. Callen, Michael & Long, James D., 2015. "Institutional corruption and election fraud: evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102931, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H Felter & Hani Mansour & Daniel I Rees, 0. "Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 767-789.
    8. repec:kob:wpaper:1628 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. von Borzyskowski, Inken & Wahman, Michael, 2018. "Systematic measurement error in election violence data: causes and consequences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90450, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Ilia Murtazashvili & Jennifer Murtazashvili, 2019. "The political economy of legal titling," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 251-268, September.

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