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Why Do Citizens Discount the Future? Public Opinion and the Timing of Policy Consequences

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  • Jacobs, Alan M.
  • Matthews, J. Scott

Abstract

It is widely assumed that citizens are myopic, weighing policies’ short-term consequences more heavily than long-term outcomes. Yet no study of public opinion has directly examined whether or why the timing of future policy consequences shapes citizens’ policy attitudes. This article reports the results of an experiment designed to test for the presence and mechanisms of time-discounting in the mass public. The analysis yields evidence of significant discounting of delayed policy benefits and indicates that citizens’ policy bias towards the present derives in large part from uncertainty about the long term: uncertainty about both long-run processes of policy causation and long-term political commitments. There is, in contrast, little evidence that positive time-preferences (impatience) or consumption-smoothing are significant sources of myopic policy attitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobs, Alan M. & Matthews, J. Scott, 2012. "Why Do Citizens Discount the Future? Public Opinion and the Timing of Policy Consequences," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 903-935, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:42:y:2012:i:04:p:903-935_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Pankaj Koirala & Raja Rajendra Timilsina & Koji Kotani, 2021. "Deliberative Forms of Democracy and Intergenerational Sustainability Dilemma," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Timilsina, Raja R & Kotani, Koji & Nakagawa, Yoshinori & Saijo, Tatsuyoshi, 2021. "Concerns for future generations in societies: A deliberative analysis of the intergenerational sustainability dilemma," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Carlos Seixas & Diogo Lourenço, 2024. "On the optimality of policy choices in the face of biased beliefs, retrospective voting and the down-up problem," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 63(2), pages 299-321, September.
    4. Henrik Serup Christensen & Lauri Rapeli, 2021. "Immediate rewards or delayed gratification? A conjoint survey experiment of the public’s policy preferences," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(1), pages 63-94, March.
    5. Matt Andrews, 2021. "Successful Failure in Public Policy Work," CID Working Papers 402, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    6. Beatrice Magistro, 2022. "The influence of financial and economic literacy on policy preferences in Italy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 351-381, July.
    7. Timilsina, Raja R. & Kotani, Koji & Nakagawa, Yoshinori & Saijo, Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "Intragenerational deliberation and intergenerational sustainability dilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Kantorowicz, Jaroslaw & Collewet, Marion & DiGiuseppe, Matthew & Vrijburg, Hendrik, 2024. "How to finance green investments? The role of public debt," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Kiratli, Osman Sabri & Ertan, Sabri Arhan, 2023. "When to Not Respond in Kind? Individuals’ Expectations of the Future and Their Support for Reciprocity in Foreign Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Latest Ar, pages 1-1.
    10. Masakazu Ogami, 2024. "The Conditionality of Political Short‐Termism: A Review of Empirical and Experimental Studies," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 12.
    11. Iasmin Goes, 2023. "Examining the effect of IMF conditionality on natural resource policy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 227-285, March.

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