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Foreign-Imposed Regime Change, State Power and Civil War Onset, 1920–2004

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  • Peic, Goran
  • Reiter, Dan

Abstract

This article proposes that foreign-imposed regime changes (FIRCs) make civil war onset more likely when they damage state infrastructural power, as in the context of interstate war, and when they change the target’s political institutions as well as leadership. Using rare events logit to analyse civil war onset from 1920 to 2004, it is found that interstate war and institutional change are virtually necessary (though not sufficient) conditions for an FIRC to cause a civil war. Many control variables are included. The results are robust to different research design specifications; nevertheless, they cannot confirm that occupation troops make an FIRC more likely to spark civil war.

Suggested Citation

  • Peic, Goran & Reiter, Dan, 2011. "Foreign-Imposed Regime Change, State Power and Civil War Onset, 1920–2004," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 453-475, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:41:y:2011:i:03:p:453-475_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Absher, Samuel & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2023. "The consequences of CIA-sponsored regime change in Latin America," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Danielle Villa & Daniel Arnon & Dan Reiter, 2022. "Causes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change: The Signal of Economic Expropriation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 651-676, May.
    3. Gunitsky, Seva, 2014. "From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 561-597, July.
    4. Alex Weisiger, 2014. "Victory without peace: Conquest, insurgency, and war termination," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 357-382, September.
    5. Daniel Krcmaric & Abel Escribà -Folch, 2023. "I’ll Be Back? Exiled Leaders and Political Instability," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(2-3), pages 402-427, February.
    6. Thomas Gift & Daniel Krcmaric, 2017. "Who Democratizes? Western-educated Leaders and Regime Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(3), pages 671-701, March.
    7. Dan Reiter & Allan C. Stam & Michael C. Horowitz, 2016. "A Revised Look at Interstate Wars, 1816–2007," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(5), pages 956-976, August.

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