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Redistributive Politics and Stock Price Dispersion

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  • McGILLIVRAY, FIONA

Abstract

Cross-sectional time-series data from fourteen stock markets, from 1973 to 1996, are used to study how political institutions compare in affecting party governments' incentives to enrich one group of industries at the expense of another. Using measures of cross-sectoral variance of price changes within stock markets as a proxy for change in redistributive policy, I show that political change is important in both proportional representation (PR) and majoritarian systems. As parties shift in and out of government, trade and industrial policy is redistributed to favour the parties' industrial supporters. Such changes in policy increase the cross-sectoral dispersion in price changes, with newly advantaged industries seeing their stock increase, while the price of those losing favourable policy declines. The temporal impact of redistribution differs across electoral systems, with the impact of political change being more immediate in majoritarian systems and the effect being more diffuse in PR systems. Majoritarian systems are also more responsive to economic shocks, while changes in economic conditions have few discernable effects on the dispersion of stock prices in PR countries. PR systems, however, experience overall higher levels of dispersion. I contrast these results with the dominant extant arguments of radical policy shifts in majoritarian systems and policy stability in PR systems.

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  • McGILLIVRAY, FIONA, 2003. "Redistributive Politics and Stock Price Dispersion," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 367-395, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:33:y:2003:i:03:p:367-395_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael M. Bechtel & Roland Füss, 2010. "Capitalizing on Partisan Politics? The Political Economy of Sector‐Specific Redistribution in Germany," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 203-235, March.
    2. Nathan Jensen, 2007. "International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 261-280, September.
    3. Deari Fitim & Koku Paul Sergius, 2024. "Do Local Political Elections Affect Daily Stock Returns? Evidence from the Republic of North Macedonia's MBI10 Index," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 98-116, March.
    4. Goutam Dutta & Pankaj Jha & Arnab Kumar Laha & Neeraj Mohan, 2006. "Artificial Neural Network Models for Forecasting Stock Price Index in the Bombay Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 5(3), pages 283-295, December.
    5. Ghalke, Avinash & Sensarma, Rudra & Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar, 2023. "Stock markets and economic uncertainty: Roles of legislative sessions and coalition strength," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Nathan M Jensen, 2005. "Measuring Risk: Political Risk Insurance Premiums and Domestic Political Institutions," International Finance 0512002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Murillo, Maria Victoria & Scartascini, Carlos & Tommasi, Mariano, 2008. "The Political Economy of Productivity: Actors, Arenas, and Policies. A Framework of Analysis," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1642, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Benton Allyson Lucinda, 2013. "Partisan policy promises and sector-specific stock-market performance: evidence from Mexico’s 2006 presidential campaign," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 187-215, August.

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