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Economic Crisis, Incumbent Performance and Regime Support: A Comparison of Longitudinal Data from West Germany and Costa Rica

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  • Finkel, Steven E.
  • Muller, Edward N.
  • Seligson, Mitchell A.

Abstract

While much is known about the effects of the economy on the popularity and electoral fortunes of political leaders, political scientists know very little about how economic decline and political performance influence support for the political regime and the stability of democratic systems. We use three cross-national longitudinal surveys to address this issue: two collected in Costa Rica in the midst of a severe economic crisis in the late 1970s and early 1980s; and one in West Germany during the recession of the mid-1970s. We show that in both countries, overall support for the political regime remained extremely high during the economic decline, while satisfaction with incumbent performance fluctuated much more sharply. Moreover, at the individual level, changes in satisfaction with incumbent performance were only weakly related to changes in regime support. These results provide strong evidence suggesting that if democracies enter economic downturns with initially high levels of regime support, they will be able to withstand even severe, prolonged crises of economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Finkel, Steven E. & Muller, Edward N. & Seligson, Mitchell A., 1989. "Economic Crisis, Incumbent Performance and Regime Support: A Comparison of Longitudinal Data from West Germany and Costa Rica," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 329-351, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:19:y:1989:i:03:p:329-351_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Neugart, Michael & Rode, Johannes, 2021. "Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Fuchs, Dieter, 1998. "The political culture of unified Germany," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Institutions and Social Change FS III 98-204, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    3. Cusack, Thomas R., 1997. "On the road to Weimar? The political economy of popular satisfaction with government and regime performance in Germany," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economic Change and Employment FS I 97-303, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Kenneth Newton, 2006. "Political Support: Social Capital, Civil Society and Political and Economic Performance," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 54(4), pages 846-864, December.
    5. Baxandall, Phineas, 2002. "Explaining differences in the political meaning of unemployment across time and space," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 469-502.
    6. Newton, Kenneth, 2005. "Support for democracy: Social capital, civil society and political performance," Discussion Papers, Research Group Civil Society, Citizenship and Political Mobilization in Europe SP IV 2005-402, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    7. André Blais & François Gélineau, 2007. "Winning, Losing and Satisfaction with Democracy," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 55(2), pages 425-441, June.
    8. Alexander De Juan & Jan Henryk Pierskalla, 2016. "Civil war violence and political trust: Microlevel evidence from Nepal," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(1), pages 67-88, February.

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