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Taylor Approximations for Model Uncertainty within the Tweedie Exponential Dispersion Family

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  • Alai, Daniel H.
  • Wüthrich, Mario V.

Abstract

The use of generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate claims reserves has become a standard method in insurance. Most frequently, the exponential dispersion family (EDF) is used; see e.g. England, Verrall. We study the so-called Tweedie EDF and test the sensitivity of the claims reserves and their mean square error of predictions (MSEP) over this family. Furthermore, we develop second order Taylor approximations for the claims reserves and the MSEPs for members of the Tweedie family that are difficult to obtain in practice, but are close enough to models for which claims reserves and MSEP estimations are easy to determine. As a result of multiple case studies, we find that claims reserves estimation is relatively insensitive to which distribution is chosen amongst the Tweedie family, in contrast to the MSEP, which varies widely.

Suggested Citation

  • Alai, Daniel H. & Wüthrich, Mario V., 2009. "Taylor Approximations for Model Uncertainty within the Tweedie Exponential Dispersion Family," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 453-477, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:39:y:2009:i:02:p:453-477_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 50-71.
    2. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2016. "Stochastic loss reserving with dependence: A flexible multivariate Tweedie approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 63-78.
    3. Benjamin Avanzi & Gregory Clive Taylor & Phuong Anh Vu & Bernard Wong, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Papers 2004.06880, arXiv.org.
    4. Denuit, Michel & Trufin, Julien, 2016. "Beyond the Tweedie Reserving Model: The Collective Approach to Loss Development," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016030, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).

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