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Democratizing for Peace

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  • Ward, Michael D.
  • Gleditsch, Kristian S.

Abstract

The argument that democratization can bring about war is a powerful critique suggesting limits to the linkage between democracy and peace. This research examines this claim. Our findings demonstrate that democratizing polities are substantially less war prone than previously argued. By focusing on the characteristics of the transition process, we show that as contemporary polities become more democratic they reduce their overall chances of being involved in war by approximately half. We also find that rocky or especially rapid transitions or reversals are associated with a countervailing effect; namely, they increase the risk of being involved in warfare. Both in the long term and while societies undergo democratic change, the risks of war are reduced by democratization and exacerbated by reversals in the democratization process. To reach these conclusions, we developed and applied a logit model linking authority characteristics and war involvement using Polity III and Correlates of War databases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ward, Michael D. & Gleditsch, Kristian S., 1998. "Democratizing for Peace," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 51-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:92:y:1998:i:01:p:51-61_20
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    Cited by:

    1. Ely Ratner, 2009. "Reaping What You Sow," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(3), pages 390-418, June.
    2. Graeme A. M. Davies, 2002. "Domestic Strife and the Initiation of International Conflicts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(5), pages 672-692, October.
    3. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 5555, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Kimana Zulueta†Fülscher, 2018. "Overcoming the ownership dilemma: Contributing to peace and democracy in El Salvador and the Philippines," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(S1), pages 220-246, March.
    5. Christian Davenport, 1999. "Human Rights and the Democratic Proposition," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(1), pages 92-116, February.
    6. John S. Ahlquist & Aseem Prakash, 2008. "The influence of foreign direct investment on contracting confidence in developing countries," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 316-339, September.
    7. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Violence during democratization and the quality of democratic institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 226-247.
    8. Alhaji Cherif & Kamal Barley, 2010. "Cliophysics: Socio-Political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(12), pages 1-6, December.
    9. A. J. Enterline, 1998. "Regime Changes, Neighborhoods, and Interstate Conflict, 1816-1992," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(6), pages 804-829, December.
    10. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
    11. Sara McLaughlin & Scott Gates & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Ranveig Gissinger & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 1998. "Timing the Changes in Political Structures," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 231-242, April.
    12. Harvey Starr & Christina Lindborg, 2003. "Democratic Dominoes Revisited," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(4), pages 490-519, August.
    13. Elie Appelbaum, 2006. "Strategic extremism," Working Papers 2006_12, York University, Department of Economics.
    14. Michael J. Ireland & Scott Sigmund Gartner, 2001. "Time to Fight," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(5), pages 547-568, October.
    15. Hilde Ravlo & Nils Petter Gleditsch & Han Dorussen, 2003. "Colonial War and the Democratic Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(4), pages 520-548, August.
    16. Mroß, Karina, 2015. "The fragile road towards peace and democracy: insights on the effectiveness of international support to post-conflict Burundi," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    17. Johannes Karreth & Jaroslav Tir & Douglas M Gibler, 2022. "Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 197-212, March.
    18. Faten Ghosn & Glenn Palmer & Stuart A. Bremer, 2004. "The MID3 Data Set, 1993—2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(2), pages 133-154, April.
    19. Johann Park, 2013. "Forward to the future? The democratic peace after the Cold War," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(2), pages 178-194, April.
    20. Ursula E. Daxecker, 2011. "Rivalry, Instability, and the Probability of International Conflict1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(5), pages 543-565, November.

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