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Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections

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  • Nadeau, Richard
  • Niemi, Richard G.
  • Amato, Timothy

Abstract

We address two questions: How do people form their expectations about the likely winner of the next general election? and What are the links between expectations and votes? Using data collected by the Gallup organization in Great Britain, we find that the expectations formation process (1) has a significant inertia component but also a rapid adjustment to current information; (2) reflects voters' ability to translate economic expectations into political forecasts; and (3) is “time-bounded,” possessing special characteristics immediately before and after a general election. The analysis also confirms the existence of a small bandwagon effect, whereby expectations that one party will win inflate that party's vote. The ability of voters to make reasonable forecasts without being unduly influenced by their own preferences suggests that under normal circumstances voters are expressing real preferences and not simply following the crowd.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadeau, Richard & Niemi, Richard G. & Amato, Timothy, 1994. "Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(2), pages 371-383, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:88:y:1994:i:02:p:371-383_09
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    2. Daniel Pastorek, 2020. "Measuring the Public Perception of the European Integration Process: Evidence from the United Kingdom and Germany," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 113-126.
    3. Richard Nadeau & André Blais & Neil Nevitte & Elisabeth Gidengil, 2000. "It's Unemployment, Stupid! Why Perceptions About the Job Situation Hurt the Liberals in the 1997 Election," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-94, March.
    4. St'ephane Dupraz & Daniel Muller & Lionel Page, 2013. "Tactical Voting and Voter's Sophistication in British Elections," QuBE Working Papers 011, QUT Business School.
    5. Huber, Sascha & Gschwend, Thomas & Meffert, Michael F. & Pappi, Franz Urban, 2008. "Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung," Papers 08-01, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    6. Robert Hodgson & John Maloney, 2013. "Bandwagon effects in British elections, 1885–1910," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 73-90, October.

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