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Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind

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  • Suzuki, Motoshi

Abstract

Numerous studies have sought to discover political business cycles in macroeconomic variables. Although voters' subjective economic expectations have been shown to influence their electoral decisions, no existing research has attempted to uncover cyclical patterns in citizens' economic expectations. Using survey data, I seek to determine whether expectations shift to benefit the incumbent president's electoral interest. The analyses show that the percentage of the public predicting an economic upturn increases before a presidential election. One explanation for the findings is that voters might extrapolate cyclical expectations from macroeconomic conditions that contain election-driven cycles. Yet the analyses show that expectational cycles still appear when the macroeconomic conditions are held constant. I conclude by drawing an explanation without recourse to macroeconomic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Suzuki, Motoshi, 1992. "Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 989-996, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:86:y:1992:i:04:p:989-996_09
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    Cited by:

    1. Moshe Maor, 2017. "The implications of the emerging disproportionate policy perspective for the new policy design studies," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 50(3), pages 383-398, September.
    2. Jac C. Heckelman & Hakan Berument, 1998. "Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 987-1000, April.
    3. Bertrand Marc & Andreas Reuter, 2018. "The Effect of Elections on Consumer Confidence in Europe," European Economy - Discussion Papers 090, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2018. "Consumptor economicus: How do consumers form expectations on economic variables?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 254-275.
    5. Michael Howlett, 2014. "From the ‘old’ to the ‘new’ policy design: design thinking beyond markets and collaborative governance," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 47(3), pages 187-207, September.

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