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Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections

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  • Campbell, James E.

Abstract

The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential elections in proportion to the presidential vote in a state, and subsequently loses seats in midterm elections also in proportion to the prior presidential vote in the state. The presidential coattail and the midterm repercussion effects are evident even when gubernatorial coattail effects are introduced, but are fairly modest in states lacking competitive parties.

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  • Campbell, James E., 1986. "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-63, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:80:y:1986:i:01:p:45-63_18
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Maria Dellmuth & Dominik Schraff & Michael F. Stoffel, 2017. "Distributive Politics, Electoral Institutions and European Structural and Investment Funding: Evidence from Italy and France," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 275-293, March.
    2. Marta Curto-Grau (Universitat de Barcelona) & Albert Sole-Olle (Universitat de Barcelona) & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro(Universitat de Barcelona), 2012. "Partisan targeting of inter-governmental transfers & state interference in local elections: evidence from Spain," Working Papers in Economics 288, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    3. Ben Lockwood & James Rockey, 2020. "Negative Voters? Electoral Competition with Loss-Aversion," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(632), pages 2619-2648.
    4. Chava, Sudheer & Danis, András & Hsu, Alex, 2020. "The economic impact of right-to-work laws: Evidence from collective bargaining agreements and corporate policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 451-469.
    5. Steven Rogers, 2016. "National Forces in State Legislative Elections," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 667(1), pages 207-225, September.
    6. Ade, Florian & Freier, Ronny, 2013. "Divided government versus incumbency externality effect—Quasi-experimental evidence on multiple voting decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Bennett, Daniel L. & Long, Jason T., 2019. "Is it the economic policy, stupid? Economic policy, political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 118-137.
    8. Gomberg, Andrei & Gutiérrez, Emilio & López, Paulina & Vázquez, Alejandra, 2019. "Coattails and the forces that drive them: Evidence from Mexico," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-81.
    9. Marta Curto-Grau & Albert Solé-Ollé & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2012. "Partisan targeting of inter-governmental transfers & state interference in local elections: evidence from Spain," Working Papers 2012/31, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).

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