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Aggregate Stability and Individual-Level Flux in Mass Belief Systems: The Level of Analysis Paradox

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  • Inglehart, Ronald

Abstract

Converse's findings of low constraint and stability among mass attitudes are only one side of the story; mass attitudes often manifest much more coherent and stable patterns at the aggregate level than would seem possible if one took the results of panel survey analysis at face value. Items designed by Rokeach and Inglehart to tap basic value priorities, show modest individual-level stability, together with remarkably high aggregate stability structured in ways that could not occur if random answering were the prevailing pattern. Materialist/postmaterialist values show large differences between birth cohorts that not only persisted throughout 1970-1984 but seem to reflect distinctive formative experiences that occurred as much as 50 years ago. These aggregate results are much too skewed to result from equiprobable random answering and cannot be attributed to methods effects. They reflect underlying attitudinal predispositions in the respondents themselves. While random response to given items does play an important role, it is much less widespread than Converse's Black and White model implies and does not generally reflect an absence of relevant preferences. Structural equation analysis of multiple indicators demonstrates much stabler, broader orientations underlying the response to given items that account for the high aggregate-level stability observed here. Because it usually measures such orientations imperfectly, individual-level survey data tend systematically to underestimate constraint and stability in mass attitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Inglehart, Ronald, 1985. "Aggregate Stability and Individual-Level Flux in Mass Belief Systems: The Level of Analysis Paradox," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 97-116, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:79:y:1985:i:01:p:97-116_22
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    Cited by:

    1. Marx, Paul & Schumacher, Gijs, 2014. "The Effect of Economic Change and Elite Framing on Economic Preferences: A Survey Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 7979, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Jona Schellekens & David Gliksberg, 2018. "The Decline in Marriage in Israel, 1960–2007: Period or Cohort Effect?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 119-142, February.
    3. Martin Lakomý, 2017. "The role of values and of socioeconomic status in the education-fertility link among men and women," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 121-141.
    4. Sičáková-Beblavá Emília & Kollárik Martin & Sloboda Matúš, 2016. "Exploring the Determinants of Transparency of Slovak Municipalities," NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 9(2), pages 121-145, December.
    5. Yeganeh Morakabati & John Fletcher & Bruce Prideaux, 2012. "Tourism Development in a Difficult Environment: A Study of Consumer Attitudes, Travel Risk Perceptions and the Termination of Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 953-969, October.
    6. Jona Schellekens & Frans Poppel, 2012. "Marital Fertility Decline in the Netherlands: Child Mortality, Real Wages, and Unemployment, 1860–1939," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 965-988, August.
    7. Amihai Glazer & Bernard Grofman, 1989. "Why representatives are ideologists though voters are not," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 29-39, April.
    8. Lianne Ippel & John Gelissen & Guy Moors, 2014. "Investigating Longitudinal and Cross Cultural Measurement Invariance of Inglehart’s Short Post-materialism Scale," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 919-932, February.
    9. Scott L. Feld & Bernard Grofman, 1992. "Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Cycle? Evidence from 36 Elections," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 4(2), pages 231-237, April.
    10. Frank Andrews, 1991. "Stability and change in levels and structure of subjective well-being: USA 1972 and 1988," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-30, August.

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