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Political Stability of Two-Party and Multiparty Systems: Probabilistic Bases for the Comparison of Party Systems

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  • Midlarsky, Manus I.

Abstract

The stability of the American two-party system is examined from 1866 until 1980. Following the approach of Stokes and Iversen (1962), restoring forces are posited for presidential elections, but restraining forces also are suggested for congressional elections, leading to an equilibrium between the two in elections to the House. Points of maximum restoration in presidential elections are derived using autocorrelations, and these points suggest a pattern of second-term Republican victories every 28 years beginning in 1872.Equilibrium properties of the American two-party system lead to the twin criteria of representation and restraint in multiparty cabinet coalitions in order to achieve cabinet durabilities on the order of those found in two-party systems. Minimum entropy-minimum winning coalitions satisfy these criteria. Cabinet durabilities on the order of two-party systems can be achieved by means of a 44-55 percentage of the legislative seats won by the first party in a multiparty system.

Suggested Citation

  • Midlarsky, Manus I., 1984. "Political Stability of Two-Party and Multiparty Systems: Probabilistic Bases for the Comparison of Party Systems," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 929-951, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:78:y:1984:i:04:p:929-951_25
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    Cited by:

    1. Reuven Y. Hazan, 1995. "Center Parties and Systemic Polarization," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 7(4), pages 421-445, October.
    2. Nelson, Arthur B, 2020. "Deterrence in sequential contests: An experimental study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Andrew Whitford, 2013. "Dynamics of partisan representation the American south, 1898–2010," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 1531-1543, April.
    4. Arthur B. Nelson, 2019. "Deterrence in sequential contests: An experimental study," Working Papers wp2019_11_02, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    5. Stephen Coleman, 1995. "Dynamics in the fragmentation of political party systems," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 141-155, May.

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