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Power, Alliance, and the Escalation of International Conflict, 1815-1965

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  • Siverson, Randolph M.
  • Tennefoss, Michael R.

Abstract

A considerable amount of the international politics literature attempts to explain international conflict on the basis of the distribution of power between and among nations. There are, however, divergent views of this linkage. One view argues that wars are most likely to take place between nations of similar power, while another asserts that wars are most likely when power is unequal. Research seeking to explore this phenomenon has not investigated the capability augmenting effects of alliances on power relationships and has tended to focus its attention upon the occurrence of wars. This research examines the individual and joint effects of power and alliance upon the probability of 256 conflicts to escalate to reciprocated military action. The main finding is that equality of power, supplemented by alliance with a major power for those nations that are weak, tends to restrain the likelihood that a conflict will escalate.

Suggested Citation

  • Siverson, Randolph M. & Tennefoss, Michael R., 1984. "Power, Alliance, and the Escalation of International Conflict, 1815-1965," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1057-1069, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:78:y:1984:i:04:p:1057-1069_30
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    Cited by:

    1. Jong-Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2016. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 327-344, February.
    2. Jong-Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2016. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 327-344, February.
    3. Douglas Lemke, 1995. "Toward A General Understanding of Parity and War," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 14(2), pages 143-162, September.
    4. Olga Chyzh, 2014. "Can you trust a dictator: A strategic model of authoritarian regimes’ signing and compliance with international treaties," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 3-27, February.

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