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Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race

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  • Ward, Michael Don

Abstract

This article presents a model of arms expenditures and arms accumulation for the Soviet Union and United States from 1952 through 1978. It argues that contemporary superpowers do not react solely to the military budgets of one another in assessing the potential threat against which they must allocate military resources, i.e., in deciding upon the military budget. Rather, they respond primary to the relative balance of strategic and conventional military forces. A continuous time model of this process is developed and estimated. If one examines only the budgets of these two nations, it would appear that no race is occurring; rather, the Soviets are simply increasing their arms expenditures irrespective of what the United States does. However, when one examines the relative stocks of military capabilities, it appears that the USSR is racing to catch up to the United States. Finally, the dynamics governing arms competition between the United States and the USSR appear to be undergoing marked change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ward, Michael Don, 1984. "Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 297-317, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:78:y:1984:i:02:p:297-317_25
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo F-de-Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2016. "National security, military spending and the business cycle," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 549-570, August.
    2. Richard J. Stoll, 1992. "Steaming in the Dark?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 263-283, June.
    3. Ben D. Mor & Zeev Maoz, 1999. "Learning and the Evolution of Enduring International Rivalries: a Strategic Approach," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(1), pages 1-48, February.
    4. Charles H. Anderton, 1989. "Arms Race Modeling," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(2), pages 346-367, June.
    5. James D. Morrow, 1989. "A Twist of Truth," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 500-529, September.
    6. Michael D. Ward & Alex Mintz, 1987. "Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 86-105, March.
    7. Benjamin O. Fordham, 2004. "A Very Sharp Sword," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(5), pages 632-656, October.
    8. Michael Don Ward & A. K. Mahajan, 1984. "Defense Expenditures, Security Threats, and Governmental Deficits," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(3), pages 382-419, September.
    9. James D. Morrow, 2010. "The Next Wave," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(4), pages 299-307, September.
    10. Sean Bolks & Richard J. Stoll, 2000. "The Arms Acquisition Process," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(5), pages 580-603, October.
    11. Michael D. McGinnis, 1991. "Richardson, Rationality, and Restrictive Models of Arms Races," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(3), pages 443-473, September.
    12. William R. Thompson & Karen A. Rasler, 1988. "War and Systemic Capability Reconcentration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(2), pages 335-366, June.
    13. Rafael Reuveny & John Maxwell, 1998. "Free Trade and Arms Races," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(6), pages 771-803, December.
    14. Gary Zuk & Nancy R. Woodbury, 1986. "U.S. Defense Spending, Electoral Cycles, and Soviet-American Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 445-468, September.
    15. repec:lje:journl:v:20:y:2015:i:2:p:35-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Susan G. Sample, 1998. "Military Buildups, War, and Realpolitik," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 156-175, April.

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