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The Costs of War: A Rational Expectations Approach

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  • de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno

Abstract

A model of war costs is presented that is based on the utility nations expect to derive from the war as well as on the technological gap between adversaries and the short-term tactical tit-for-tat calculations that must occur on the battlefield. This model explains nearly three-quarters of the variance in battle deaths per million population per month of war experienced by war initiators. Approximately one-quarter of the variance in war costs is accounted for by considering the position of the initiator's opponent. A second model, based on marginal changes in expected utility, technological differences, and tit-for-tat, is shown to account for more than one-third the variance, regardless of whether war costs are viewed by the initiator or an opponent in a war. This study, therefore, provides a useful explanation of war intensity and contributes to the cumulative, lawlike implications of the expected-utility approach on which it is based.

Suggested Citation

  • de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1983. "The Costs of War: A Rational Expectations Approach," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 347-357, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:77:y:1983:i:02:p:347-357_24
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Vuchinich & Jay Teachman, 1993. "Influences on the Duration of Wars, Strikes, Riots, and Family Arguments," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 544-568, September.
    2. Phil Henrickson, 2020. "Predicting the costs of war," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 285-308, July.
    3. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1987. "Conceptualizing War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 370-382, June.
    4. Michael Nicholson, 1987. "The Conceptual Bases of The War Trap," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 346-369, June.

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