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Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800–1971

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  • Gurr, Ted Robert

Abstract

This study reports the codification of basic authority characteristics of 336 national political systems (polities) that functioned in 91 nation-states between 1800 and 1971. In form the typical 19th-century polity was an autocracy with minimal functions. Its 20th-century counterpart was either an activist plural democracy or an activist autocracy. The incidence of system-transforming political change has been equally high and pervasive in both European and Third-world polities, but greater in the 20th century than the 19th. The data are used to test three hypotheses that attribute the persistence and adaptability of political systems to their authority characteristics. “Institutionalization” arguments about the stability-enhancing effects of complexity and directiveness receive no consistent support. Conventional beliefs about the greater durability of democracies vs. autocracies vs. anocracies (uninstitutionalized polities) are confirmed only in Europe in the 20th century. The most durable historical and Afro-Asian polities have been either autocratic or anocratic. The data generally support the hypothesis that “pure” political systems—consistently democratic or consistently autocratic—are more durable than systems of mixed authority characteristics. Long-term trends in political “development” and their determinants are discussed in the light of the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurr, Ted Robert, 1974. "Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800–1971," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 1482-1504, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:68:y:1974:i:04:p:1482-1504_10
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    8. María Clara Arroyo, 2018. "The Effect of Executive Constraints on Reform Implementation: An Empirical Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0118, Department of Economics - dECON.
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    10. Peter Egger & Anirudh Shingal, 2021. "Determinants of services trade agreement membership," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 21-64, February.
    11. Vanessa A Boese, 2019. "How (not) to measure democracy," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 95-127, June.
    12. Mikael Sandberg & Per Lundberg, 2012. "Political Institutions and Their Historical Dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-10, October.
    13. Wegenast, Tim, 2010. "Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries," GIGA Working Papers 126, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    14. Margaret G. Hermann & Charles W. Kegley Jr., 1996. "Ballots, a Barrier against the Use of Bullets and Bombs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(3), pages 436-459, September.
    15. Schlumberger, Oliver, 2021. "Puzzles of political change in the Middle East: Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    16. Sara McLaughlin & Scott Gates & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Ranveig Gissinger & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 1998. "Timing the Changes in Political Structures," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 231-242, April.
    17. Jose Cuesta, 2013. "Theory and Empirics of Democracy and Crime Revisited: How Much Further Can We Go with Existing Data and Methodologies?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 645-674, July.
    18. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Measuring democracy," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Helena Helfer, 2017. "Prosperity-Enhancing Institutions: Towards a Comprehensive Composite Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 805-845, December.

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