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Power Sharing and Authoritarian Stability: How Rebel Regimes Solve the Guardianship Dilemma

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  • MENG, ANNE
  • PAINE, JACK

Abstract

Regimes founded in rebellion are, typically, extremely durable. We propose that this stability is founded upon peaceful power sharing between the rebel regime leader and military elites. Amid long and intense fighting, rebel leaders must delegate control to top military commanders because doing so helps them to win battles. After seizing power, power-sharing deals between former combatants are highly credible due to their history of interactions, which mitigates the guardianship dilemma. Elsewhere, a persistent internal security dilemma often undermines power-sharing deals. Using originally collected data on African regimes from 1960 to 2017, we establish that rebel regimes break down seldomly compared with other authoritarian regimes and they experience fewer coups. Regarding the mechanism, rebel regimes more frequently share power with military elites by appointing a Minister of Defense. These Ministers are typically high-ranking members of the rebellion, which reflects the regime’s replacement of the state military with their own.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, Anne & Paine, Jack, 2022. "Power Sharing and Authoritarian Stability: How Rebel Regimes Solve the Guardianship Dilemma," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1208-1225, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:116:y:2022:i:4:p:1208-1225_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Sheng, Yumin, 2023. "Patronage and authoritarian co-optation of the military: Theory with evidence from post-Mao China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Shelley Liu, 2023. "Legacies of victimization: Evidence from forced resettlement in Zimbabwe," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-13, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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