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Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis

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  • ZHOU, YANG-YANG
  • SHAVER, ANDREW

Abstract

A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the subnational level, we find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, prolongs existing conflict, or raises the number of violent events or casualties. Furthermore, we explore conditions where provinces are likely to experience substantively large decreases in conflict risk due to increased development. Analysis examining nighttime lights as a measure of development, coupled with expert interviews, support our claim. To address the possibility of selection bias, we use placebo tests and matching. Our research challenges assertions that refugees are security risks. Instead, we show that in many cases, hosting refugees can encourage local development and even conflict reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yang-Yang & Shaver, Andrew, 2021. "Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1175-1196, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:115:y:2021:i:4:p:1175-1196_6
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    Cited by:

    1. Coniglio, Nicola Daniele & Peragine, Vitorocco & Vurchio, Davide, 2023. "The effects of refugees’ camps on hosting areas: Social conflicts and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Zhou, Yang-Yang & Grossman, Guy & Ge, Shuning, 2023. "Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Camarena, Kara Ross, 2024. "The geopolitical strategy of refugee camps," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Myers, Emily & Sacks, Audrey & Tellez, Juan F. & Wibbels, Erik, 2024. "Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Bertinelli,Luisito & Comertpay,Rana & Maystadt,Jean-François, 2022. "Refugees, Diversity and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10052, The World Bank.
    6. Aksoy,Cevat Giray & Ginn,Thomas Clinton, 2022. "Attitudes and Policies toward Refugees : Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9985, The World Bank.

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