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News and Geolocated Social Media Accurately Measure Protest Size Variation

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  • SOBOLEV, ANTON
  • CHEN, M. KEITH
  • JOO, JUNGSEOCK
  • STEINERT-THRELKELD, ZACHARY C.

Abstract

Larger protests are more likely to lead to policy changes than small ones are, but whether or not attendance estimates provided in news or generated from social media are biased is an open question. This letter closes the question: news and geolocated social media data generate accurate estimates of protest size variation. This claim is substantiated using cellphone location data from more than 10 million individuals during the 2017 United States Women’s March protests. These cellphone estimates correlate strongly with those provided in news media as well as three size estimates generated using geolocated tweets, one text-based and two based on images. Inferences about protest attendance from these estimates match others’ findings about the Women’s March.

Suggested Citation

  • Sobolev, Anton & Chen, M. Keith & Joo, Jungseock & Steinert-Threlkeld, Zachary C., 2020. "News and Geolocated Social Media Accurately Measure Protest Size Variation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1343-1351, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:114:y:2020:i:4:p:1343-1351_26
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouke Klein Teeselink & Georgios Melios, 2022. "Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election," Working Papers CEB 22-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Masías, Víctor Hugo & Crespo R., Fernando A. & Navarro R., Pilar & Masood, Razan & Krämer, Nicole C. & Hoppe, H. Ulrich, 2021. "On spatial variation in the detectability and density of social media user protest supporters," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 65, pages 1-1.
    3. William O’Brochta, 2021. "Technology and Collective Action Event Size: Lessons for India," Studies in Indian Politics, , vol. 9(1), pages 118-123, June.
    4. Christopher J Fariss & James Lo, 2020. "Innovations in concepts and measurement for the study of peace and conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 669-678, November.

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